This morning one of the alleged US experts on petroleum has been interviewed by one or more media outlets and has predicted that gasoline could reach $12-$15 per gallon in the United States.  While I think this expert is wrong about gas prices in the US; in other parts of the globe there could be some validity to his assertion.

In case you have not noticed, gasoline is already over $10 per gallon – in Britain. 

But this is good news for project managers

I recently travelled to the UK to visit family.  This trip was not intended to be a tourist trip.  And it was a good thing that it was not.  With the US Dollar to British Pound exchange rate, it was a relatively expensive trip even with limited transportation and excursion needs.  Food prices (which are affected by transportation requirements) were higher than I have ever experienced.  If I had to stay in UK for a while, I am quite sure I could lose some weight!  While I was there I had a chance to talk with my cousins and look at the local news and magazines.  When buying or selling a car, the focus is almost exclusively on gas consumption.  And, as I indicated above, there is good reason for this focus.

Gasoline in UK is roughly £1.10-1.20 per liter.  I never have had to calculate this, but am assured by my cousins that it is 4.5 liters per gallon.  That equates to £5.40 per gallon.  Apply the current exchange rate to the dollar and this equates to $10.71 per gallon.

Two years ago, the rate of conversion and gasoline prices in UK were approximately $7 per gallon.  So, they have gone up about 60% or so in the past 2 years.  As comparison, in the past two years in the US, gasoline prices have also risen about 60%.

Now our experts are predicting a major spike in gasoline prices in the US (and although the story did not say so specifically – I assume this would occur worldwide).  In Texas, we are running somewhere just shy of $4 per gallon – this morning. 

News stories indicate that Memorial Day holiday travel will be down 22% (at $4 per gallon).  If you have been to a mall recently you will see a similar down-turn in traffic and sales.  Sales that are advertised at 30% off just do not seem to draw the crowd or the discretionary spending that they did last year. Yesterday, American Airlines announced flight curtailments and cutbacks due to rising fuel prices. 

It’s just pandelerium out there – and we are only reaching $4 per gallon in the US.

But there is good news. 

First of all, we all know the assertion that “there will always be a Britain”.  And the fine folks in the UK just keep on keeping on.  Even in the face of $10 per gallon gasoline, people still go to work and there is still work to go to; they still go on holiday and travel across the globe. Even though there are challenges and sometimes compromises, the economy keeps on producing.  With Britain and Europe as an example, I do not expect that the US economy will stop as a result of these gasoline increases.  It will simply change.

For the world at large there is similar good news. This adjustment in gasoline, transportation, consumer goods and food prices provides a rich environment for the project manager. 

Alternative energy sources that were scoffed at a few years ago and being un-needed in costing too much will now be economically viable and more people will participate in bringing these alternatives to market.  There will be many new projects initiated to meet these new alternative energy needs. 

We continue to hear about global warming and our individual carbon footprint.  Gasoline prices will create a natural change to our environmental footprint by forcing more economies and limiting some carbon emissions.  This will be a positive outcome of the gasoline price changes.

Processes and procedures that companies use for marketing, for supply chain, for general management will need to be streamlined in order to become more efficient.  This provides opportunities for project managers to lead critical projects to find and create efficiencies for the organizations they work for.

Organizations that have failed to adequately embrace project management will want to do more with less.  Project managers and project management will be able to enable the organizations to manage more effectively.

Project portfolio management will become more important to organizations in order to ensure that dollars expended are expended wisely.  Remember the “dot-bomb era” of the 1990’s?  Many of us experienced the joy of changes fostered by the ineffective and inefficient use of organizational funds.  Now we are several years older and wiser and we have lived through the experience already.  Project portfolio management can help ensure that the projects and programs that are authorized will have positive benefits for the organization.

In short, the project management community should rejoice.  We have a new opportunity to “show our stuff” and to help our respective organizations shine during this period of global change.